News Update – 18 September 2026
This week, the government came under scrutiny over its returns agreement with France, just days before the arrangement is due to expire. The future of settlement reform also remains unresolved. Meanwhile, new Home Office guidance, updated visa statistics and an independent inspection report brought further developments for sponsored workers, international students and practitioners preparing for the next round of rule changes.
Channel Crossings, Returns and Asylum
Home Secretary reveals the cost of the “one in, one out” deal
This week, the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told the Home Affairs Committee that the UK’s “one in, one out” returns arrangement with France was costing approximately £56,000 for each person returned. Around 1,400 people had been removed since the scheme began in August 2025, although some had subsequently re-entered the UK. Mahmood defended the cost as less than, or broadly comparable to, the annual expense of supporting an individual in hotel accommodation.
Under the arrangement, the UK returns a person who arrived by small boat to France and, in exchange, accepts an asylum seeker who applies through a legal route. Mahmood acknowledged that increasing removals had been operationally difficult, citing constraints such as detention capacity, and accepted that the numbers remained relatively small. However, she rejected the suggestion that an EU-wide returns pact would be a better solution, arguing that the bilateral agreement had already returned more people than the UK managed under the previous Dublin arrangements.
The scheme’s future remains uncertain. The pilot has already been extended once and is due to continue into October, but France has signalled reluctance to continue on the same basis. French interior minister Laurent Nuñez has said France does not wish to carry the arrangement alone and did not intend the pilot to be renewed beyond 1st October 2026. Mahmood also told the Committee that only relatively small numbers of refused asylum-seeking families had taken up a separate pilot offering up to £40,000 to leave the UK voluntarily.
Concerns over people returned to France who cannot be traced
Earlier in the week, attention turned to what happens to people once they are removed. Human Rights organisations said that hundreds of people returned under the deal had disappeared, including at least 41 age-disputed children. Maddie Harris, director of the Humans For Rights Network, said several NGOs had jointly compiled a list of these children and young people, whom they believe were unlawfully returned. This matters legally because lone children cannot lawfully be held in adult immigration detention and are excluded from the treaty.
The Home Office firmly rejected the claim. It said nobody whose age was in dispute had been returned to France, that every detained person is told of their right to legal representation within 24 hours of arriving at a removal centre, and that age assessments protect the border while ensuring those genuinely under 18 receive support.
French politicians have told the media that only about 200 people forcibly returned were still in contact with the French authorities, with hundreds of others believed to have gone underground across Europe.
Small boat arrivals fall to their lowest level since 2021
The wider picture on Channel crossings shows a significant decline. The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford reported that around 27,900 people crossed the Channel in the year ending 9 September 2026, the lowest annual figure since December 2021. Between 1 January and 9 September 2026, there were 16,300 arrivals, 47% fewer than during the same period in 2025. Home Office daily data also showed 625 arrivals on 6 September and 143 on 7 September, with no arrivals recorded between 8 and 11 September.
The reasons for the fall are not straightforward. The Observatory noted that several UK policy changes may have contributed, including temporary protection for refugees claiming asylum from March 2026, the suspension of refugee family reunion in September 2025, and a lower asylum grant rate, which fell from 76% in 2022 to 42% in 2025. Wider European trends are also likely to have played a role, with detected unauthorised crossings into the EU falling by 26% in 2025 and a further 37% in the first half of 2026. At the same time, smuggling methods have shifted, with more boats leaving from Belgium and a record 230 people arriving on a single boat in August.
Settlement, Citizenship and the Political Debate
Final decision on Earned Settlement expected later this year
At the Committee session, Mahmood said technical work on the government’s proposed changes to indefinite leave to remain was under way, with a final policy announcement expected later this year and in good time before February 2027. Under the proposals, the standard qualifying period for ILR would increase from five to ten years, while those on health and social care visas could wait 15 years and people who have claimed benefits for more than a year could wait 20 years. Anyone who already holds settlement would be unaffected.
The proposals remain politically sensitive because they could apply to migrants already living in the UK, including some who are close to qualifying, prompting criticism from Labour MPs over the retrospective impact. The Royal College of Nursing has also urged the Government to abandon the plans, warning that longer routes could worsen staffing pressures in adult social care, where migrant workers make up almost 30% of the workforce. The settlement changes were not included in the Immigration Rules published earlier in September, leading to claims that the Prime Minister and Home Secretary had quietly stepped back from the reforms.
TUC Congress calls for the settlement proposals to be withdrawn
The trade union movement added its voice to the opposition. At its congress in Brighton, the TUC unanimously backed a motion moved by UNISON and seconded by the Society of Radiographers, calling for the proposed changes to be withdrawn. The motion argued that the proposals unfairly target health and social care workers, contrasting how quickly a city trader could settle with the longer wait for an NHS radiographer.
Congress asked unions to campaign for a sector-wide visa scheme for social care workers, so that they can challenge poor employers without fear of deportation. It also called for the five-year route to settlement to be kept, and for any changes to ILR rules not to apply retrospectively.
Ahead of Congress, TUC general secretary Paul Nowak urged Prime Minister Andy Burnham to overhaul the reforms. He said most migrants would wait ten years rather than five, some care workers would face fifteen, and the consultation had closed six months earlier with no published response.
IPPR report questions the cost of British citizenship
The final stage of the migration journey also came under scrutiny. In its report From strangers to citizens, the Institute for Public Policy Research found that the Home Office charges £1,709 for an adult naturalisation application. Home Office transparency data puts the processing cost at around £324, and the fee is more than three times the next highest in the G7, the United States at £562. Once the £130 citizenship ceremony fee is added, the baseline cost of becoming British rises to £1,839.
IPPR proposes that the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain should generally be five years and no more than ten. It argues against blanket bars on naturalisation and for fair protections for people already on a route to citizenship. It also suggests that every child born in the UK should be able to apply for citizenship after five years’ residence, whatever their parents’ status. Children’s fees, it says, should be cut to the £324 administrative cost, funded partly by higher certificate of sponsorship charges for employers.
However, a Home Office spokesperson has stated that immigration and nationality fees do not generate a profit and that any surplus funds the wider migration system.
Sponsor Licences, Skilled Workers and Students
Temporary protection for care workers when a sponsor loses its licence
Updated Home Office caseworker guidance on cancellation and curtailment of permission now contains a specific safeguard for adult social care workers. Caseworkers must not cancel the permission of a care worker (SOC 6135 or 6145) or senior care worker (SOC 6136 or 6146) on the Skilled Worker or Health and Care Worker route where the sponsor’s licence revocation is the only reason for cancellation. The guidance states that this arrangement is temporary and subject to regular review. Where any other reason for cancellation applies, caseworkers must consider cancellation in the usual way.
This matters because, until now, workers have often borne the consequences of their employer’s compliance failures. Displaced care workers have typically been given 60 days from the cancellation of their certificate of sponsorship to regularise their stay or leave the UK.
The change also comes as the route shrinks sharply. Home Office statistics show 7,600 main applicant Health and Care Worker visa applications in the year ending August 2026, a 65% fall on the previous year and 95% below the November 2023 peak. Practitioners advising affected clients should still check whether a licence has in fact been revoked rather than suspended, and whether any separate ground for cancellation might apply.
Study visa applications fall by 16%, prompting concern across the sector
The Home Office’s latest monthly visa statistics, published on 10th September, showed 360,700 sponsored study visa main applications in the year ending August 2026, 16% lower than the previous year. Dependant applications fell by 22% to 17,000, which is 88% below the year ending December 2023, before most students lost the right to bring family members.
Applications in August were just under 100,000, compared with 120,300 in August 2025. The fall is significant because August is the busiest month, ahead of the new academic year.
The same release showed declines on other routes. Skilled Worker main applications fell by 43% to 26,900. Family visa applications dropped by 20% to 63,800, and monthly family applications halved between September 2025 and August 2026 after Refugee Family Reunion was paused.
The higher education sector responded with alarm. Russell Group chief executive Libby Hackett called on the Prime Minister to reverse the international student levy, which she described as a tax on one of the UK’s most critical exports, and urged a period of stability in immigration policy. Wonkhe noted that this year’s fall is comparable to the drop caused by the dependants ban, but without one clear cause. Visa restrictions, negative publicity, international competition, currency movements and geopolitical turmoil are all likely to be playing a part.
Border inspector reports on eVisas and ETAs
On 15th September, the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration published an inspection of the Future Border and Immigration System programme, examining eight of its intended benefits between March and July 2026. By December 2025, ETA fees had raised £332 million and other fees £1.7 billion. Removing Biometric Residence Permits had saved £28 million, and eGates had delivered a further £35 million. Staff working on BRP-related activity fell from 320 full-time equivalent posts to just two.
The report described the rollout of eVisas and ETAs as highly commendable but found that border transformation is far from complete. Inspectors identified two major challenges: upgrading infrastructure at airports and seaports, and changing Border Force working practices and culture while reducing its workforce. On the workforce challenge, they said difficulties had been underestimated rather than overestimated.
Chief Inspector John Tuckett has said that the hardest recommendation would require a step change in approach across the migration and borders system. The Home Office accepted all three recommendations in full.
Case Law
Court of Appeal rules that abandonment decisions cannot be appealed to the Upper Tribunal
In Guerrero v Secretary of State for the Home Department [2026] EWCA Civ 953, the Court of Appeal held that a First-tier Tribunal decision to treat an asylum claim as abandoned cannot be challenged in the Upper Tribunal. The Court found that such a decision is preliminary or procedural in nature rather than a final determination, which means the Upper Tribunal has no jurisdiction to hear an appeal against it under the current statutory framework.
This judgment is significant because it draws a clear line between preliminary procedural decisions and final decisions that dispose of an appeal, and that distinction decides which First-tier Tribunal decisions may be taken to the Upper Tribunal. For the full case decision, visit here
Useful News links
UK paying £56,000 for each person returned to France under ‘one in one out’ scheme
Hundreds of asylum seekers removed from UK to France have disappeared, say NGOs
41 Asylum-Seeking Children Missing After UK Sends Them to France Under ‘One In, One Out’ Deal
Q&A: Why have small boat arrivals declined in 2026?
Small boat activity in the English Channel
Andy Burnham and Shabana Mahmood ‘chicken out’ of immigration reforms promised by Labour
C04 Migrant rights are workers’ rights – withdraw the unsettling UK settlement proposals
From strangers to citizens: Membership and belonging in an age of migration (full report, PDF)
From strangers to citizens: Membership and belonging in an age of migration
Cancellation and curtailment of permission
Monthly entry clearance visa applications, August 2026
UK student visa applications fall sharply in key month of August
An inspection of the Future Border and Immigration System benefits realisation (March to July 2026)
Home Office Guidance and Policy Updates
To view the Home Office Guidance and Policies updated between 12th September 2026 to 18th September 2026, visit here
What’s On
This week’s developments reflect the fast-paced changes affecting various immigration routes.
The HC 584 fee waiver and variation rules take effect on 8 October, the Home Office has updated its guidance on sponsor licence revocations, and the courts continue to define the limits of tribunal jurisdiction.
HJT Training’s upcoming courses respond directly to these changes. They give immigration advisers and practitioners practical guidance on the new rules, sponsor compliance and judicial review, so that you can advise clients with confidence. Early booking is recommended.
Summer 2026 Immigration Law Update – Friday 2 October 2026 (£40)
How to Prepare Fee Waivers (including the New Rules) – Thursday 8 October 2026 (£55)
Sacha Special: Sponsor Licence and Right to Work Checks (2 Courses) – Thursday 5 November and Thursday 12 November 2026 (£99)
Judicial Review Conference 2026 (In Person or Online) – Friday 27 November 2026 (£119)
For more information, visit here
Early booking is recommended; for enquiries, email enquiries@hjt-training.co.uk or call 07446466898.
Written by Shareen Khan, Legal Content Writer, HJT Training
Disclaimer: This blog post is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration advisors should consult the full decisions and official policy documents